Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.004066 0.004273 0.004486 0.004721 0.004973 0.005236 0.005531
2025-01-12 0.003703 0.004015 0.004348 0.004733 0.005165 0.005639 0.006199
2025-01-19 0.003363 0.003716 0.004105 0.004567 0.005102 0.005708 0.006451
2025-01-26 0.003208 0.003604 0.004048 0.004588 0.005232 0.005983 0.006933
2025-02-02 0.003144 0.003583 0.004087 0.004714 0.005481 0.006399 0.007598
2025-02-09 0.002992 0.003450 0.003982 0.004656 0.005498 0.006527 0.007906
2025-02-16 0.002886 0.003361 0.003924 0.004648 0.005569 0.006720 0.008300
2025-02-23 0.002781 0.003269 0.003854 0.004619 0.005608 0.006868 0.008638
2025-03-02 0.002723 0.003232 0.003849 0.004668 0.005745 0.007147 0.009163
2025-03-09 0.002632 0.003147 0.003780 0.004630 0.005766 0.007268 0.009473
2025-03-16 0.002546 0.003066 0.003711 0.004588 0.005775 0.007371 0.009761
2025-03-23 0.002452 0.002970 0.003620 0.004511 0.005733 0.007399 0.009937
2025-03-30 0.002364 0.002882 0.003537 0.004445 0.005706 0.007450 0.010158
2025-04-06 0.002313 0.002840 0.003512 0.004456 0.005786 0.007658 0.010626
2025-04-13 0.002200 0.002713 0.003372 0.004303 0.005627 0.007511 0.010538
2025-04-20 0.002161 0.002682 0.003358 0.004323 0.005714 0.007727 0.011029
2025-04-27 0.002160 0.002702 0.003411 0.004439 0.005945 0.008166 0.011905
2025-05-04 0.002098 0.002637 0.003348 0.004386 0.005923 0.008220 0.012151
2025-05-11 0.002056 0.002597 0.003317 0.004378 0.005968 0.008378 0.012580
2025-05-18 0.002009 0.002549 0.003274 0.004351 0.005982 0.008486 0.012930
2025-05-25 0.001988 0.002538 0.003281 0.004396 0.006107 0.008776 0.013617
2025-06-01 0.001943 0.002490 0.003235 0.004362 0.006106 0.008862 0.013943
2025-06-08 0.001898 0.002442 0.003187 0.004323 0.006097 0.008932 0.014242